See how reward:risk R and win rate interact: break-even percentages, expectancy per 1R risked, and a compact heatmap for quick comparisons.
R is reward:risk (how many dollars you target per dollar risked). Break-even win rate is 100 / (1 + R) when wins pay +R and losses cost −1R per trade.
| R (reward : 1 risk) | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 0.25 : 1 | 80.0% |
| 0.50 : 1 | 66.7% |
| 0.75 : 1 | 57.1% |
| 1.00 : 1 | 50.0% |
| 1.25 : 1 | 44.4% |
| 1.50 : 1 | 40.0% |
| 1.75 : 1 | 36.4% |
| 2.00 : 1 | 33.3% |
| 2.25 : 1 | 30.8% |
| 2.50 : 1 | 28.6% |
| 2.75 : 1 | 26.7% |
| 3.00 : 1 | 25.0% |
| 3.25 : 1 | 23.5% |
| 3.50 : 1 | 22.2% |
| 3.75 : 1 | 21.1% |
| 4.00 : 1 | 20.0% |
| 4.25 : 1 | 19.0% |
| 4.50 : 1 | 18.2% |
| 4.75 : 1 | 17.4% |
| 5.00 : 1 | 16.7% |
Rows: reward:risk R. Columns: assumed win rate. Cell = p×R − (1−p) in R-multiples.
| R \\ WR | 35% | 40% | 45% | 50% | 55% | 60% | 65% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5:1 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| 1.0:1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | +0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| 1.5:1 | -0.1 | +0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| 2.0:1 | +0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| 2.5:1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +1.3 |
| 3.0:1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +1.2 | +1.4 | +1.6 |
| 3.5:1 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +1.5 | +1.7 | +1.9 |
| 4.0:1 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +1.5 | +1.8 | +2.0 | +2.3 |
| 4.5:1 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +1.8 | +2.0 | +2.3 | +2.6 |
| 5.0:1 | +1.1 | +1.4 | +1.7 | +2.0 | +2.3 | +2.6 | +2.9 |
Green = stronger positive expectancy; red = negative. Thresholds are illustrative only.
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