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Win rate vs risk/reward matrix

See how reward:risk R and win rate interact: break-even percentages, expectancy per 1R risked, and a compact heatmap for quick comparisons.

Break-even tableExpectancy heatmapSame R convention as R:R calculator

Win rate vs reward:risk

R is reward:risk (how many dollars you target per dollar risked). Break-even win rate is 100 / (1 + R) when wins pay +R and losses cost −1R per trade.

Try your numbers

50%
2.00 : 1
Break-even win rate
33.3%
Expectancy (per 1R risked)
+0.50R

How to read this

  • Higher R means you need a lower win rate to break even — but each loss still costs a full risk unit.
  • Expectancy in R answers: “If I keep this edge, how many risk-units do I gain per trade on average?” Positive is required for long-run growth.
  • This model ignores spreads, commissions, and slippage; add those when planning real trades.

Break-even win rate by reward:risk

R (reward : 1 risk)Break-even win rate
0.25 : 180.0%
0.50 : 166.7%
0.75 : 157.1%
1.00 : 150.0%
1.25 : 144.4%
1.50 : 140.0%
1.75 : 136.4%
2.00 : 133.3%
2.25 : 130.8%
2.50 : 128.6%
2.75 : 126.7%
3.00 : 125.0%
3.25 : 123.5%
3.50 : 122.2%
3.75 : 121.1%
4.00 : 120.0%
4.25 : 119.0%
4.50 : 118.2%
4.75 : 117.4%
5.00 : 116.7%

Expectancy heatmap (R per trade risked)

Rows: reward:risk R. Columns: assumed win rate. Cell = p×R − (1−p) in R-multiples.

R \\ WR35%40%45%50%55%60%65%
0.5:1-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.0
1.0:1-0.3-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.3
1.5:1-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.3+0.4+0.5+0.6
2.0:1+0.0+0.2+0.4+0.5+0.7+0.8+1.0
2.5:1+0.2+0.4+0.6+0.8+0.9+1.1+1.3
3.0:1+0.4+0.6+0.8+1.0+1.2+1.4+1.6
3.5:1+0.6+0.8+1.0+1.3+1.5+1.7+1.9
4.0:1+0.7+1.0+1.3+1.5+1.8+2.0+2.3
4.5:1+0.9+1.2+1.5+1.8+2.0+2.3+2.6
5.0:1+1.1+1.4+1.7+2.0+2.3+2.6+2.9

Green = stronger positive expectancy; red = negative. Thresholds are illustrative only.

Important Disclaimer

This tool and all information provided on mycryptocal.com are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.

  • Trading and holding cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, tokenized assets, and derivatives (including perpetual and margined products) involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market conditions can change rapidly and unpredictably.
  • You may lose some or all of your invested capital. Only trade or invest with money you can afford to lose.
  • The calculations, tools, and educational content provided are estimates and should not be used as the sole basis for trading or investment decisions.
  • Always consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or broker before making any trading or investment decisions.

By using this tool, you acknowledge that you understand the risks involved and that mycryptocal.com and its operators are not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from your trading or investment decisions.